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Risk and economic consequences of contagious animal disease introduction

Horst, H.S.
1997, 145pp., paper (MS 11)
ISBN 90-6754-516-3 € 23

The book presents a new and integrated approach for risk analysis and economics in the area of animal health management. The approach focuses on the introduction of contagious animal diseases, in particular Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD). Major emphasis was placed on the development of a stochastic computer model to simulate virusintroduction into a country or region and to evaluate the economics of alternative pre-vention strategies. Quantitative information on risk factors with respect to virus introduction is only scarcely available. Hence a computerised workshop was designed to consult experts in an objective and quantitative way, using amongst others the conjoint analysis technique. The outcome served as input for a Monte Carlo simulation model, named VIRiS (Virus Introduction Risk Simulation). Results show that import of animals and returning livestock trucks are expected to account for more than 70% of the primary outbreaks of CSF and FMD in the Netherlands. An elimination of these risk factors would reduce the annual disease losses by approximately US$ 40 million. The approach presented is general and could also be used for other diseases and countries.

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