<<>><<>><<>>_____TURKISTAN NEWSLETTER...ISSN:--1386-6265____<<>><<>><<>>
<<>><<>><<>>__________Volume:97-1:34--12--August--1997________<<>><<>><<>>
<<>><<>><<>>________Editor/Manager: Mehmet Tutuncu__________<<>><<>><<>>
<<>><<>><<>>________Business:S.Bogut,H.Savas________________<<>><<>><<>>
<<>><<>><<>>___Features: I. Noyan-Izmirli, Y. Puersuen______<<>><<>><<>>
<<>><<>>______Associate Editors: A.Baguirov, A. Eren, Z.Kadir___<<>><<>>
<<>><<>>________________________________________________________<<>><<>>
<<>><<>>________Editorial Board:________Dr.Robert M.Cutler______<<>><<>>
<<>><<>>________Dr.M.Gammer_____________Prof.dr.P.B.Golden______<<>><<>>
<<>><<>>________Dr.Baymirza Hayit_______Dr.H.M.Hubey____________<<>><<>>
<<>><<>>________Dr.H.Kirimli____________Dr.T.Kocaoglu___________<<>><<>>
<<>><<>>________Dr.H. Komatsu__________ Dr.H.B.Paksoy___________<<>><<>>
<<>><<>>________Dr.Nesrin Sariahmetoglu_________________________<<>><<>>
<<>><<>>________________________________________________________<<>><<>>
<<>><<>>__ Üze Tengri basmasar asra yer telinmeser, Türk bodun__<<>><<>>
<<>><<>>_____ ilining törügin kem artati, udaçi erti.___________<<>><<>>
<<>><<>>_______[From 7th. century Orkhon runic inscriptions)____<<>><<>>
<<>><<>>_Reactions or subsmissions to: <turkistan-n@turkistan.org>_<<>><<>>
<<>><<>>_______Archives of the Turkistan Newsletter are at:_____<<>><<>>
<<>><<>>___<http://www.euronet.nl/users/sota/turkistan.htm>_____<<>><<>>
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<In this issue:
#1. TURKISH PRESS REVIEW AUGUST 7, 1997
1a. Turkish Trade Centre in Erivan
1b. New Page in Relations with Turkish Republics
#2. RFE/RL Newsline 11 August 1997
2a. RENEWED FIGHTING IN TAJIKISTAN
2b. TAJIK SECURITY COUNCIL CONVENES.
2c. ARMENIA, RUSSIA AGREE ON CFE QUOTA
2d. DETAINED GEORGIAN WARLORD DECLARES HUNGER STRIKE
2e. EXPLOSION NEAR U.S. EMBASSY IN BAKU
2f. DISPUTE OVER KYAPAZ OIL FIELD CONTINUES
#3. Oil giants and Israel hold key to Caucasus conflicts TURKISH DAILY NEWS
- 11 August 1997
#4. MOSCOW'S OSTRICH POLICY IN NORTH CAUCASUS by Liz Fuller (RFE/RL)
#5. CASPIAN SEA CHANGE SEEN IN US-AZERBAIJAN RELATIONS ( New Europe, p. 3,
Aug 10-16 '97.)
#6. CASPIAN OWNERSHIP FLAP WIDENS -- NIYAZOV TAKES KYAPAZ TO MARKET (New
Europe, p. 48, Aug 10-16 '97.)
#7. KYRGYZ NEWS - 10,11 AUGUST 1997
#8. Central Asia: A Looming Ecological Apocalypse By Salimjon Aioubov (RFE/RL)
#9. Publication Yeni Türkiye: Türk Dünyasi Özel Sayisi>
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#1. TURKISH PRESS REVIEW AUGUST 7, 1997
1a. TURKISH TRADE CENTRE IN ERIVAN
Even though there have currently been no diplomatic relations between
Turkey and Armenia, businessmen from the two countries have taken an
important step for the development of trade cooperation. According to
a protocol signed between 11 Turkish businessmen, who have visited
Erivan, and the Armenian Industrialists' and Businessmen's Union, it
has been agreed that a Turkish Trade Centre would be established in
Erivan. An 11-person delegation, the members of which are all from
the Turkish-Armenian Business Council and headed by Kaan Soyak, made
contacts in Erivan. According to the protocol, a trade centre, where
Turkish products will be sold, will be set up, and cooperation in
banking, investments and textiles will be increased. /Sabah/
1b. NEW PAGE IN RELATIONS WITH TURKISH REPUBLICS
State Minister Ahad Andican has prepared a draft on improving
relations with the Central Asian Turkish republics, an issue that
emerges as one of the foreign policy priorities set up by the new
government. Andican submitted yesterday a plan envisaging a number of
moves in this respect for Prime Minister Yilmaz's approval.
The measures included in the plan are designed to improve economic
relations with the Turkish republics, and especially to enhance
cooperation in the energy sector. Targeting the strengthening of
bilateral ties also in the fields of culture, sports and education,
the plan urges Turkish officials to intensify their contacts on all
levels with representatives of the Turkish republics that gained their
independence in the aftermath of the disintegration of the former
Soviet Union. Inviting these states into the D-8 organization of
Muslem states is another steps outlined in the plan.
Political observers draw attention to the fact that Prime Minister
Yilmaz will pay his first foreign visit as a head of the new
government to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, and stress that this is an
indication of the importance attached to improving relations with the
Turkish states by the new cabinet. /Cumhuriyet/
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#2. RFE/Rl Newsline 11 August 1997
2a. RENEWED FIGHTING IN TAJIKISTAN. Fighting erupted in northern
Dushanbe on 9 August between Interior Ministry forces headed by Col.
Sukhrob Kasymov and some 200 supporters of Yakub Salimov, former
interior minister and current customs committee chairman. Salimov
withdrew westward from Dushanbe to Gissar after several dozen of his
men were killed, according to AFP. Also on 9 August, maverick
military commander Makhmud Khudoiberdiev, who since January 1996
has twice launched unsuccessful attempts to overthrow Tajik President
Imomali Rakhmonov, threatened to advance on Dushanbe from his base
near Kurgan-Tyube to the south unless Kasymov left the capital,
according to Reuters. Presidential guard commander Gafar Mirzoev
told AFP on 10 August that Khudoiberdiev's forces were advancing on
the capital in order to oust Rakhmonov. Khudoiberdiev issued a denial,
claiming his forces were attacked by the presidential guard. He also
pledged his loyalty to the president.
2b. TAJIK SECURITY COUNCIL CONVENES. Addressing a session of
the Tajik Security Council on 10 August, Rakhmonov blamed the
renewed violence on "destructive forces" intent on undermining the
peace agreement signed between the Tajik government and opposition in
late June. The council issued a statement claiming that the fighting was
initiated by "the economic and drugs mafia and the criminal world." It
also called on the warring parties to surrender their arms within three
days, according to Reuters. Sporadic clashes between Kasymov's and
Salimov's forces continued west of Dushanbe throughout the night of
10-11 August. ITAR-TASS on 11 August reported that the situation in
Dushanbe is calm, public transport is running, and some shops are open.
It is unclear whether fighting is continuing in the Fakhrabad mountain
pass, some 40 kilometers south of Dushanbe, where Khudoiberdiev's
forces clashed with the presidential guard on 10 August, according to
dpa.
2c. ARMENIA, RUSSIA AGREE ON CFE QUOTA. The Russian and
Armenian Foreign Ministries have exchanged notes affirming that
Armenia will maintain the present weapons allocations stipulated by the
1990 Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe, RFE/RL's Yerevan
bureau reported on 8 August, quoting Foreign Ministry spokesman
Armen Gasparyan. Armenia had ceded part of its arms allocations in
tanks, personnel carriers, and artillery to the Russian troops stationed on
its territory. The Foreign Ministry opposed that move, arguing it could
damage Armenia' s national security vis-a-vis Azerbaijan. Gasparyan
did not specify whether the exchange of notes meant Russia would
reduce the amount of arms at its bases in Armenia to enable Yerevan to
increase its holdings.
2d. DETAINED GEORGIAN WARLORD DECLARES HUNGER
STRIKE. Djaba Ioseliani, leader of the banned Mkhedrioni paramilitary
formation, has declared a hunger strike to demand his release from
detention and a meeting with UN and Council of Europe representatives,
ITAR-TASS reported on 9 August, citing the Georgian press. Ioseliani
was instrumental in forcing the 1992 ouster of President Zviad
Gamsakhurdia and in bringing back former Soviet Foreign Minister
Eduard Shevardnadze to his native Georgia. Ioseliani was arrested in
November 1995, and has been charged with high treason, murder,
banditry, and terrorism, including the unsuccessful car bomb attack on
Shevardnadze in August 1995. Ioseliani's trial is scheduled to begin in
September. Meanwhile, the Georgian presidential press service on 8
August said the Interior Ministry has evidence that another terrorist act
against Shevardnadze is being prepared in an unnamed foreign country,
ITAR-TASS reported.
2e. EXPLOSION NEAR U.S. EMBASSY IN BAKU. A small explosion was
reported near the U.S. embassy in Baku on 8 August, Interfax reported.
No one was injured, nor was the building damaged. Turan the next day
cited a district police official as saying the explosion occurred when
teenagers set fire to an old TV set. Earlier the same day, President
Heidar Aliev returned from a state visit to the U.S., which Foreign
Minister Hasan Hasanov characterized as a "breakthrough" in bilateral
relations. He added that relations between Washington and Baku have
reached the stage of a "strategic partnership," ITAR-TASS reported on
9 August.
2f. DISPUTE OVER KYAPAZ OIL FIELD CONTINUES. Aliev told
journalists on 8 August that he is not concerned about the withdrawal of
Russian oil companies from the July agreement on joint exploitation and
development of the Kyapaz oil field, Interfax and Turan reported. The
Russian government had announced three days earlier that Rosneft and
LUKoil would withdraw from the deal after the Turkmen Foreign
Ministry protested that Kyapaz lies in Turkmenistan's sector of the
Caspian (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7-8 July and 6 August, 1997). Aliev
said the agreement signed was one of intent and therefore cannot be
annulled. A senior official of the Azerbaijan state oil company SOCAR
told AFP on 8 August that Azerbaijan's claims to Kyapaz are
indisputable. Prime minister Artur Rasizade said in an interview with
Turan the same day that Azerbaijan has not yet been officially informed
of the Russian withdrawal. He proposed that Azerbaijan and
Turkmenistan jointly develop Kyapaz.
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#3. Oil giants and Israel hold key to Caucasus conflicts
TURKISH DAILY NEWS - 11 August 1997
Oil giants and Israel hold key to Caucasus conflicts
The pro-Israeli lobby in Washington rolls up its sleeves to support
Azeri interests
as U.S. oil companies increase pressure on administration over the
Nagorno-Karabakh
dispute
SAADET ORUC
Ankara - Turkish Daily News
The Turkey-Israel partnership has silently been expanding to include one
of the most strategically
important countries in the region, Azerbaijan, a diplomatic source from the
Caucasus region commented
to the Turkish Daily News.
Israel -- with an Azeri population of 50,000 -- and Azerbaijan -- where
nearly 100,000 Israelis live --
have established a partnership against regional threats, according to
sources.
"As we continue receiving reports about the growing Armenian armament
backed by the Russian
Federation, we cannot ignore the 'combined' threats against us. How can we
do nothing while Syria,
Greece and Armenia are establishing a strategic partnership which we have
to follow closely?" said a
senior diplomat.
Referring to Azerbaijan's recent contacts with the U.S. capital, the same
source commented that the pro-
Israeli lobby in the United States was one of the main factors backing
President Haydar Aliyev's trip to
promote Azeri interests.
Meanwhile, Turkish international relations experts, commenting to the
Turkish Daily News about the
role of Azerbaijan in the new regional strategic structure, agreed with the
thesis that "there is an obvious
intersection between the Turkey-Israel, Israel-Azerbaijan and
Turkey-Azerbaijan partnerships".
Turkey and Israel officially recognized Azerbaijan soon after it had
declared its independence following
the breakup of the Soviet Union.
Oil companies increase pressure over Nagorno-Karabakh issue
While Turkish diplomatic sources evaluated Aliyev's U.S. visit as the
most important step shaping the
recent political scene in the Caucasus region, they commented that the
agenda for the solution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh issue will be clarified by September. Armenia and
Azerbaijan are engaged in a
territorial dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh region which is populated by
ethnic Armenians.
"The agenda for the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute is becoming
clearer as the oil companies
increase their pressure on the U.S. administration, especially with regard
to Azeri interests. In the final
analysis of the $10 billion agreement signed between Aliyev and eight big
oil companies, it may be that
the oil reserves in Azerbaijan are much greater than previously estimated.
Neither the Nagorno-Karabakh
dispute nor the embargo against U.S. aid to Azerbaijan will be able to
withstand the power of these oil
companies," said a diplomatic source who briefed the TDN on Friday.
He also said that the next step for achieving peace in Nagorno-Karabakh
is the upcoming Moscow visit
of Armenian leader Leon Ter-Petrosian.
In September, the co-chairmen of the Minsk Group of the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in
Europe (OSCE) will be touring the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Armenia and
Azerbaijan in order to
discuss the outcomes of the Moscow and Washington visits and set a definite
timetable for the solution,
the same official stated. "I do not want to use the word 'force,' but the
two countries are being manipulated
towards the solution by Washington and Moscow," he said.
Turkey-Armenia relations
Meanwhile, Turkish-Armenian relations are waiting for the outcome of
recent efforts to bring a solution
to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Last week's gathering of the Turkish-Armenian Business Council in
Yerevan was said to be a step
towards the formation of a group to influence the administrations.
Armenian officials, for a long time, have been remarking that they are
willing to normalize relations
with Turkey. The initial step for normalization of ties will most probably
be the opening of a trade gate
which is promoted by business circles, diplomatic sources told the TDN.
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#4.MOSCOW'S OSTRICH POLICY IN NORTH CAUCASUS
by Liz Fuller
Until recently, the 1994-96 war in Chechnya and the uneasy peace
that followed have eclipsed the unresolved conflict between Chechnya's
western neighbor, Ingushetia, and the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania.
The leaders of the two republics, Ruslan Aushev and Akhsarbek
Galazov, met with Russian President Boris Yeltsin in Moscow on 8
August in an attempt to forestall new violence in North Ossetia's
disputed Prigodonyi Raion.
The conflict there, like so many on the territory of the former
Soviet Union, is the consequence of Stalin's nationality policy. When the
North Ossetian and Ingush autonomous oblasts were created in 1924,
Prigorodnyi Raion formed the westernmost district of Ingushetia. In
1936, Moscow merged Ingushetia with Chechnya to form the Checheno-
Ingush Autonomous Republic. This formation was abolished following
the 1944 mass deportation of both the Chechens and the Ingush to
Central Asia under suspicion of collaborating with Nazi Germany. At
the same time, Prigorodnyi Raion was incorporated into North Ossetia.
Following Secretary-General Nikita Khrushchev's 1956 "secret speech"
to the 20th congress of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, a
green light was given for the repatriation of the exiled peoples and for
the reformation of the Chechen-Ingush Autonomous Republic, albeit
within different borders. Prigorodnyi Raion, however, remained part of
North Ossetia.
The return of the deported Ingush to Prigorodnyi Raion
inevitably created tensions between the Ossetians and the repatriates,
many of whose homes had been occupied by settlers from elsewhere in
the North Caucasus. The Ingush claim that they were routinely subjected
to discrimination on ethnic grounds. But with the exception of fighting
in the North Ossetian capital in late1981, tensions did not escalate into
violence.
In the late 1980s, Mikhail Gorbachev's policy of glasnost created
the illusion that the Soviet leadership was prepared to redress the most
egregious injustices inflicted by Stalin on the non-Russian peoples.
Beginning in 1991, the Ingush staged repeated demonstrations to
demand that Checheno-Ingushetia again be divided into its two
constituent parts and Prigorodnyi Raion returned to Ingushetia. (In
March 1991, Boris Yeltsin, then chairman of the RSFSR Supreme
Soviet, endorsed the first of those Ingush demands.) The Ossetian
population, for their part, rallied to protest the proposal to hand over
the raion to Ingushetia. In April 1991, the RSFSR Supreme Soviet
adopted a law on the rehabilitation of repressed peoples that implicitly
promised territorial reparations, thereby fueling Ingush hopes. But the
Ossetians succeeded in pressuring Moscow to impose a five-year
moratorium on implementing the legislation. Checheno-Ingushetia was
finally divided into two republics in July 1992.
Several months later, in October 1992, the accumulated tensions
erupted into fighting in Prigorodnyi Raion between Ingush informal
militias and North Ossetian security forces backed by Russian Interior
Ministry and army troops. In six days of violence, up to 700 people
were killed, hundreds of hostages taken by both sides, and thousands of
homes (mostly belonging to Ingush families) destroyed. Almost the
entire Ingush population of the district (estimates range from 34,000 to
64,000 people) were forced to flee.
The Russian leadership responded by imposing a state of
emergency in Prigorodnyi Raion and adjacent areas of both North
Ossetia and Ingushetia, which remained in force until February1995.
But direct rule by Moscow has failed to contribute significantly to
defusing tensions and creating conditions for the return of the Ingush.
Most Ingush fugitives are living in temporary accommodation in
Ingushetia. Only an estimated 2,000 have returned to Prigorodnyi
Raion.
Since early July, interethnic clashes in Prigorodnyi Raion have
risen dramatically, prompting Aushev to appeal to President Boris
Yeltsin to impose presidential rule there. Galazov, however, rejected
that proposal as potentially counterproductive, arguing instead for
increased funding to rebuild destroyed homes and create new jobs for
both Ossetians and returning Ingush. Yeltsin rejected presidential rule as
unconstitutional and "contrary to the direction in which Russian
federalism should develop."
Meeting with the two republican presidents on 8 August, Yeltsin
proposed tension-defusing measures similar to those agreed on last year
in Chechnya. Those measures include a moratorium of 15-20 years on
territorial claims and the creation of Ossetian-Ingush militia patrols to
maintain the peace. Moscow will allocate 200 billion rubles ($34.5
million) annually for the next two years toward reconstruction in
Prigorodnyi Raion. Galazov expressed satisfaction with those measures,
but Aushev warned the moratorium is tantamount to "burying one's
head in the sand."
Nor do Yeltsin's proposals address two factors that Russian
observers identify as contributing to the recent upsurge in violence.
First, presidential elections are scheduled for April 1998 in North
Ossetia and Ingushetia, which means both the incumbents and their
prospective rivals risk alienating potential voters if they appear too
conciliatory. Second, the Russian government in early July abolished the
special economic status granted to Ingushetia in June 1994, whereby the
republic is exempt from federal taxes. That move threatens to
undermine the republic's economy and thus create new tensions.
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#5. CASPIAN SEA CHANGE SEEN IN US-AZERBAIJAN RELATIONS: (First printed in New
Europe, p. 3, Aug 10-16 '97.)
Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliyev's 10-day visit to the United States was
billed as an exercise in strengthening bilateral ties, which have often been
strained in the past over U.S. policy toward Armenia. However, this was no
ordinary state visit. It was not marked by a series of formal state dinners
or climax with the signing of a showcase friendship and cooperation
agreement. It was a working visit.
That is, Aliyev came to the United States to take care of business. He held
discussions with top officials and diplomats about repealing legislation
unfavorable to Azerbaijan. He spoke with defense officials about assistance
for his country's armed forces. And the highlight of his visit was presiding
over the signing of four exploration and development agreements with
American oil companies.
Aliyev would not have been able to make such a visit three or four years
ago. Indeed, his country was something of a pariah in U.S. diplomatic
circles in the early 1990s, frowned upon for its antagonism toward
neighboring Armenia, with which it battled for six years over the
majority-Armenian area of Nagorno-Karabakh. Even though Yerevan essentially
won the battle for Nagorno-Karabakh -- with the help of Russian military
advice and US$1 billion or more worth of illegally imported Russian
weaponry, some say -- Washington was committed to a policy of holding Baku
at arm's length until the blockade ended. This policy was enshrined in a
piece of legislation known as Section 907, which prohibited the U.S.
government from providing support or money to any Azerbaijani government
agency or government-funded institution for any reason as long as the
blockade remained in place. Section 907 was approved by the U.S. Congress in
1992, and its text has been included in every annual foreign aid
appropriations bill since then. (NATO member Turkey, which joined Azerbaijan
in the blockade out of a feeling of ethnic Turkic solidarity, has suffered
no such punishment.)
The decision to implement Section 907 went largely unquestioned for several
years. The bill was hugely popular among Armenian-American lobby groups,
which called it a justified reproof of Baku's abysmal human rights record
and refusal to grant independence or autonomy to a region that had long been
populated by ethnic Armenians.
In With The Oil ...
But limited press freedom and arrests and torture of dissidents and members
of the political opposition -- as well as Aliyev's launch of a minor
personality cult after booting Ebulfaz Elcibey out of the president's seat
in 1993 -- began to look less and less important to Washington after U.S.
companies began signing multi-billion dollar contracts to develop offshore
fields in the Caspian Sea that Baku had staked out as its own. Suddenly,
U.S. diplomats began to criticize Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrossian
for his occasional authoritarian outbursts and began to cite Baku's claims
that 20% of Azerbaijani territory was occupied by Armenian troops bent on
annexing Nagorno-Karabakh and the western provinces that bordered Armenia.
(The figure is probably closer to 15%, and although there have been calls to
annex the disputed area, Yerevan maintains that it wants to see
Nagorno-Karabakh become an independent state rather than an Armenian
province.)
While it is true that Baku is not the only one that has run roughshod over
human and civil rights, the abuses appear to be more extensive in
Azerbaijan. But it is equally true that U.S. foreign policy is based on
economic as well as moral considerations -- and Armenia simply does not have
as many opportunities to offer American companies. Azerbaijan offers oil
producers, oil industry equipment makers and a host of other companies that
can provide services to oil field workers the chance to make billions of
dollars in profits. Washington tends to listen when huge and powerful firms
like Chevron, Exxon and Unocal start saying that the law hinders their
ability to do business. And it tends to listen even more carefully when the
complaints of oil companies are echoed by well-known -- and well-paid --
lobbyists like former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski and for
Secretary of State James Baker and augmented by the argument that Section
907 prevents the United States from acting as an honest broker in the
negotiations over Nagorno-Karabakh.
... And Out With Section 907?
As such, opposition to Section 907 has been mounting within the U.S.
government. A State Department report on the Caspian basin issued earlier
this year recommends the abolition of the bill. The Departments of Energy
and Commerce are not known to favor it. While many legislators still support
American-American lobbies' efforts to maintain the bill, others have
introduced motions to repeal it. The second-highest official in the State
Department and a close confidant of President Bill Clinton, Deputy Secretary
Strobe Talbott, said earlier this summer that Section 907 should go. The
frequency of such statements increased as the date of Aliyev's arrival in
Washington drew closer.
Armenian-American groups have, understandably, been incensed by this growing
show of U.S. government support for Azerbaijan, saying that loosening
restrictions on trade with a state that had dubious democratic and human
rights credentials would be unjust. But unless Caspian oil unexpectedly
becomes less attractive, Washington is likely to continue with its push to
repeal Section 907.
For the moment, the oil companies and their allies are winning the argument.
U.S. Vice President Al Gore attended the signing of four new oil deals
between U.S. companies and the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) on
August 1, and officials in many levels of the administration would like to
see the bill revoked so that these and other projects will benefit from U.S.
government-backed loans and export guarantees.
Aliyev's critics in Armenia, Russia and elsewhere have accused him of
cynically using Caspian oil to gain world backing for Azerbaijan's more
problematic foreign and domestic policies. But the Azerbaijani president is
not just a manipulator; he is a skillful politician who knows that his
country's huge oil reserves will attract the interest of countries that want
their companies to profit and create more jobs. In the case of the United
States, his strategy appears to have succeeded. And that means Section 907
is likely to be revoked and that Aliyev, though he has been accused of
everything from sexual indiscretions to having his political enemies killed,
is likely to become -- in the words of Lyndon Johnson -- "our son of a bitch."
Undoubtedly, the repeal of Section 907 will help American oil producers and
other companies that will follow them into Azerbaijan. But Aliyev's critics
-- and there are many -- have a point. Even if Ter-Petrossian has presided
over elections of dubious fairness and accepted smuggled arms from Russia,
it must be noted that Armenia has pushed further ahead than its neighbor
with democratization and privatization. Aliyev, meanwhile, has pleaded for
time, saying that he cannot transform his country overnight.
US policy towards Azerbaijan is changing. But it should not change in a
fashion that makes oil a substitute for democracy. The United States has
committed itself to a broad policy of supporting political as well as
economic transition in the former Soviet Union, and hopes of making
Azerbaijan free as well as rich should not get lost in the scramble to
ensure that U.S. companies get their share of Caspian oil.
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#6. CASPIAN OWNERSHIP FLAP WIDENS -- NIYAZOV TAKES KYAPAZ TO MARKET: (First
printed in New Europe, p. 48, Aug 10-16 '97.)
The signing of a preliminary agreement on the Kyapaz oil field between
LUKoil and Rosneft of Russia and the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR)
has created considerable consternation in three capitals. The field, which
Turkmenistan calls Serdar, straddles the line between the Azerbaijani and
Turkmen sectors of the Caspian Sea and is claimed by both countries.
Ashgabat immediately demanded that the deal be revoked. Baku dismissed the
Turkmen claims and said SOCAR had every right to sign the initial agreement.
Responding to Ashgabat's protests, Moscow huffed that it had would not have
approved the signing if it had been given advance notice of the deal.
Since the furor began in early July, all three sides have tried to bolster
their positions. Turkmenistan accused Russia of complicity in the Kyapaz
deal, noting that First Deputy Prime Minister and Fuel and Energy Minister
Boris Nemtsov had presided over the signing. Russia stressed that the deal
had been signed by commercial entities rather than organs of the state.
Rosneft, which acts as Moscow's agent in production-sharing deals with
foreign companies in Russia, announced its withdrawal from the deal in late
July. A week later, after a meeting with Turkmen leader Saparmurad Niyazov,
President Boris Yeltsin called the Kyapaz signing "a mistake" and said he
was cancelling the deal. Meanwhile, Azerbaijani officials stressed that the
agreement was preliminary rather than final and suddenly remembered that the
deal contained language stating that exploration and development of Kyapaz
would not begin until Turkmen and Azerbaijani claims to the Caspian were
resolved. They also said they had invited Turkmenistan to participate in the
project but had received no response.
But Rosneft's retreat and Azerbaijan's caveats have not served to cool the
dispute. LUKoil officials have announced that the company has no intention
of abandoning the Kyapaz deal and will go ahead with the project once the
competing claims have been settled. Company spokesman Pyotr Neyev was quoted
as saying: "LUKoil is not going to wait for politicians to untangle
themselves. We need to work. We have a guarantee from the Azeri government,
and that is enough for us."
However, Ashgabat is gambling that a guarantee from Baku will not be enough.
The Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported on July 30 that Niyazov had
announced plans to tender Kyapaz -- or Serdar -- to interested companies in
the United States.
This audacious move, if it is actually carried out, is likely to fail. True,
the Turkmen president did find some sympathy for his complaints about
Azerbaijan's appropriation of the Caspian in Moscow. Yeltsin told Niyazov
that he would not let the Kyapaz deal go through because it had been "signed
by the companies, bypassing the President and government structures", and
Foreign Ministry officials also made their disapproval clear. However,
Russia's Caspian policy has of late been set more by companies like LUKoil
and officials like Nemtsov, who are more concerned about letting Russian
firms expand their business than about diplomatic quarrels over ownership of
the sea, than by the Foreign Ministry. This means that LUKoil is likely to
hang on to its 50% stake in Kyapaz.
This, in turn, begs the question of exactly what Turkmenistan might offer in
the tender. The 50% stake that LUKoil does not hold? The 20% stake that
Rosneft gave up? All of it? Ashgabat has accused Baku of behaving
irresponsibly in giving the two Russian companies an interest in Kyapaz, but
it would be equally irresponsible for Turkmenistan to put the field up for
offer in the United States until the current quarrel is settled.
Moreover, U.S. oil companies with the resources to develop Kyapaz might not
take Niyazov's bait. American analysts and oil company executives have
repeatedly downplayed the dispute between Baku and Ashgabat over who owns
what part of the Caspian, calling it a skirmish that is unlikely to affect
ongoing development projects. But as-yet undeveloped Kyapaz is a different
case. U.S. companies might not be willing to pay for interest in a field
that is claimed by a big company like LUKoil or a potential partner like
SOCAR.
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#7. KYRGYZ NEWS -
10 AUGUST 1997, SUNDAY
1. Prime minister Apas Joumagulov visited Sokuluk district of the Chu region
on 9 August, revising activity of some enterprises, including bread-baking
plant, stud farm and Kyrgyz-Chinese joint venture Kitlap. The Kitlap was
founded in 1992 and produce 7,000 tones of noodles yearly now, providing bu
Chinese noodles not only Kyrgzystan but some areas of Kazakhstan and Russia
too.
2. Askar Kakeev, minister of education, science and culture, announced in
Bishkek today that construction of 14 new schools would be finished in the
country and put into operations by 1 September. Among them is a 300-seat
school in the Kosh-Dobo village of the Naryn region. An old school was
destroyed by earthquake early this year.
3. Jumagazy Usupov, chairman of the Ashar movement, told our correspondent on
10 August that the Ashar and the Habitat firm from the U.S. had worked out a
special project Ashar. According to the project, houses for members of the
Ashar movement will be constructed by ashar method.
Ashar is an ancient Kyrgyz tradition, according to which several friends
construct a house to one of them by common efforts in one summer. Then, next
summer, they construct second house for the second member of the ashar and so
on.
4. Manas society from the Xinjiang region in China will hold a scientific
conference on Manas in the city of Urumchi on 14-20 August. Several Kyrgyz
scientists are invited to the conference.
Kyrgyz epic poem Manas is the biggest one in the world. 1,000th anniversary of
its creation was celebrated in 1995.
5. Japanese cultural center in Bishkek announced on 10 August that a special
seminar on Japanese management will be held in Bishkek on 1-4 September.
Several experts are invited from Japan to give lectures at the seminar.
6. Asaba weekly and Vecherni Bishkek daily reported on 8 August that Prime
minister Apas Joumagulov would resign soon. According to the papers, People's
Assembly of the Parliament wiil consider the PM's resignation in September.
KYRGYZ NEWS - 11 August 1997, Monday
1. President press service announced in Bishkek on 11 August that President
Askar Akayev had signed a decree on amnesty. According to it, some
categories of sick people, being convicted, and journalists, accused of
libeling or insulting officials, would be pardoned.
Two prominent Kyrgyz journalists are now convicted by these clauses of the
Criminal Code now: Zamira Sydykova, chief editor of the independent Res
Publica weekly, and Alexandr Alyanchikov, former correspondent for the same
weekly. Investigation against the third journalists with the same paper,
Yrysbek Omurzakov, is under way now. All of them are pardoned.
The draft passed in the both Houses of the Parliament on 11 June (Legislative
Assembly) and on 4 July (People's assembly).
2. Meeting of the State commission on economical crime was held in Bishkek on
11 August. Zarylbek Tezekbayev, director of the State Finance Inspection, made
a report.
According to him, the Inspection has made 1,153 investigations this year and
has found that 49-million-som total damage (about $3 million) has been made to
the state budget by economical crimes in 1997. 18 million som profit was
evaded from taxation, 16 million-som loans hav not been repaid, 11 million som
were embezzled from the state budget. 140 enterprises of the Education,
science & culture ministry have embezzled 2.4 million som; Health ministry has
embezzled about 1 million som; State Social Fund has not given 1.2 million som
to the people in need.
3. Mr.Bakiyev, deputy Procurator General, announced in Bishkek today that 215
cases of criminal violation by members of Kyrgyz Parliament have been
registered since 1994. 115-million-som damage (about $7 million) has been made
to the state budget. Investigations against 3 members of Parliament (Messrs
Shevelev, Kulmurzayev and Vorobyev) have been completed. But Parliament
rejected last month to open lawsuits against them and formed its own
commission.
4. Government press service announced in Bishkek today that Kazakh prime
minister, Akejan Kajegeldin, will visit Bishkek on 15 August. Issues on common
use of highways and electrical power lines will be discussed. Kazakhstan has
imposed recently a custom tax of $1,200 to every Kyrgyz truck, going through
the Kazakh territory and due to it, it is difficult for Kyrgyz farmers to
deliver their products to the Russian regions in Siberia.
It was agreed at the meeting between presidents of the two states (Nursultan
Nazarbayev and Askar Akayev) in Almaty early this year, that up to 300,000
Kyrgyz trucks can go throough Kazakh territory without of charge.
5. Agriculture minister, Joumakadyr Akineev, announced in Bishkek today that
negotiations between Kazakh, Kyrgyz and Uzbek governments on water resources
had begun. According to Akineev, Kazakh government had agreed to pay
Kyrgyzstan $1 million for maintenance of the water reservoirs every year.
However, Uzbek prime minister Otkir Sultanov, says his government is not ready
to pay for maintenance of the Kyrgyz reservoirs. Bishkek demands from Tashkent
about $70 million yearly.
Kyrgyz Parliament decided last June that Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan should pay
for the water from reservoirs on Kyrgyz territory. To make this decision
valid, amendments to the agreement on water resources in Central Asia, signed
in Almaty in 1992, should be made.
6. Joumakadyr Akineev, minister of agriculture, announced in Bishkek today
that grain from the 53% of sowed fields has been collected. On the average,
25.3 centners per hectare are being collected. According to Akineev, 803,500
tones of wheat have been collected already and Kyrgyzstan needs 850,000 tones
yearly. Totally, Kyrgyzstan needs 1.1 million tones of grain in a year, and
1.5 million tones will be collected in 1997.
7. Government press service announced in Bishkek today that SOS-Kinder
International Foundation will lay the foundation of a special village for the
orphans and homeless children in Bishkek on 13 August. 14 two-floor houses
will be constructed in the village. Kyrgyzstan is the 126th country in the
world, where the Foundation expands its activity.
<<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>>
#8. Central Asia: A Looming Ecological Apocalypse
By Salimjon Aioubov
Prague, 23 May 1997 (RFE/RL) -- People in the countries of Central Asia are
living their lives as best they can in peace and war.
• In Tajikistan the politicians are arguing about power sharing.
In Afghanistan the bloodshed continues more or less as usual.
• In Turkmenistan the authorities claim to be building a new Kuwait.
• Uzbekistan is preoccupied with attracting foreign investment.
In these four countries, only a comparative handful of people stop to think
about the apocalypse above their heads. Every time there is an earthquake
in the region, Tajik and Russian scientists and ecologists shiver while
they await the news: is Sarez Lake, the "hanging bomb," holding steady?
"This is the beauty, which can kill the world" says Abduhakim Shukurov,
former head of Tajikistan national committee of hydrometeorology,
paraphrasing the words of Dostoevskiy.
An RFE/RL correspondent who has visited the lake says it really is
beautiful, a huge and shining mirror surrounded by brilliant snow-capped
summits. Millions and millions of tons of water hang over the Murgob valley
at an altitude of over 3260 meters.
Sarez, though not man-made, is not a "natural" lake either, if that word
implies permanence and stability. It appeared after an earthquake in the
Central Pamir ranges in February 1911. According to the Tajik scientist
Oleg Barotov, several cubic kilometres of the Mizkol Range slid down,
burying the village of Usoi and damming the Murgob River Valley. Presently
Sarez Lake is more than 60 kilometers long, the height of its dam is 550
meters.
Because of the considerable seismic activity in the region the situation in
the valley was judged to be important even by the Russian Tsarist
authorities. According to a Russian scientist who today monitors Sarez Lake
full time, the first permanent lake observation point was established in
1913 by a Lieutenant-Colonel Shpinko, and the first observer was called
Kurbanbekov. In 1934, a lake researcher named Afanasyev warned of the
danger of erosion which could lead to the collapse or partial collapse of
the dam.
The disintegration of the earth wall would be a tragedy on a grand scale
for Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Scientists
estimate that the resulting inundation would destroy everything in its way
in those countries and would approach the north-eastern regions of Iran.
The height of the water wave across this great distance would range from 25
metres to 3 meters.
Many experts have warned the authorities to take steps to reduce the level
of water held in the lake, thereby easing the pressure on the dam. Barotov
writes that to avoid possible catastrophe, the water level in the lake must
be lowered by 150-200 meters.
During the Soviet era, Moscow and Dushanbe made many joint plans and
preparations to reduce the water level. Even World War II did not interrupt
the Soviet investment in resolving this problem. Researchers say
stabilization of the Sarez Lake level was achieved in 1945, when the
surface area of the lake reached 88 square kilometers, with an approximate
volume of 16,000 million cubic meters. The average depth is 185 meters and
the maximum depth is more than 500 meters.
>From 1975 to 1984 the USSR Council of Ministers, the Tajik government, and
the USSR ministry of energy and water resources issued several decrees
relating to the lake. In 1980 the Tajikistan committee of hydrometeorology
established an automatic radio notification system, which can send signals
by satellite to government offices in Dushanbe about any movement in the dam.
A panel of scientists has in recent years proposed a comprehensive plan for
reducing the water level. This foresees using the lake waters for
hydroelectric power production. However discussions about financing the
plan coincided with the collaps of the Soviet Union. And now the government
of independent Tajikistan has no resources to do anything -- even though
recent investigations confirm the unstable condition of the dam. To make
matters worse, the radio notification system no longer works. Only last
month, the Tajik government founded a special Sarez division inside the
Committee of Emergency Situations.
At the recent Tashkent summit of Central Asian leaders, Tajikistan proposed
a bold plan to resolve both the Sarez problem and the Aral Sea ecological
disaster. The plan envisages tranferring the Sarez water resources, via
natural and man-made channels, to the parched Aral Sea regions. But this
plan demands huge investments not only from Central Asian states, but from
the international community. In the event only Uzbekistan showed interest
to the Tajik plan. It took the initiative to study the Sarez problem so as
to inform itself on possible future action.
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#9. Publication Yeni Türkiye: Türk Dünyasi Özel Sayisi
Yeni Turkiye is a remarkable periodical publication. It is an initiative of
Hasan Celal Guzel, old Turkish Minister of Education and chairman of
Yeniden Dogus Partisi. (He was last week shortly detained, because of his
antimiltary actions.)
Yeni Turkiye newest edition is a special issue on Türk Dünyasi, Turkish
World. It has become an impressive work of 2 volumes. With its 2201 pages
it can not be called a book or a journal but it is more an Encyclopedia of
The Turkish World.
274 authors/specialist of Turkish peoples are giving an update report
analysis on the Turkish peoples of the World.
A Review of this
Encyclopedical work is going beyond the aims of this Newsletter. The
articles are of high quality and some
articles are pioneering work. These
will be a standard work for next 10 years, for issues relating Turkic
World.
The First Volume is more a general overview about the commona
aspects of Turkish peoples like history language etc.: We want to give here
an overview of topics which are treated and want to highlight some
articles. Between brackets is pages and the number of articles on the
subjects that is published, some articles are of high size (more than 50
pages)
The First volume consists of next chapters:
General information
(1-155)
in Geography and population(11)
Principal Values
(155-647)
Religion(5)
Language (11), with emphasis on Common Turkish
Language
History (12), Culture(10), Literature(8), Art(7)
Social Structure
(647-752)
Analysis (4)
Education and Science (12)
Economic Structure
(753-908)
Economic relations (9) / Foreign trade (7)/ Agricultureand:
Industry (7), Environment (3)
Political Structure (909-1174)
Political
Analysis (10) / Integration (6)/ Strategy (9), Law
(3)
Communication(3)
The second part consist of Articles on a specific
Turkish
peoples or communities: It consissts of articles grouped
as
follows:
1. Turkish Republics (1175-1384)
Azerbaijan(7) / Kazakistan
(5)
Kirgizstan (4)
Uzbekistan(2)
Turkmenistan(2)
Turkish Republic of
Northern Cyprus (5)
2. Autonomous Turkish Republics (1385-1620)
Eastern
Turkestan (7)
Tatarstan/Baskurdistan(7)
Crimea(8)
Chuvashiya
(2)
Saha/Altay/Tuva/Hakassia (5)
Gagavuz(3)
Turkish Communities (1621-1736)
Ahiska (Meskhetian Turks) (3)
Turks of Iran
(3),
Turks of Iraq (3),
Turks of Syria (2),
Turks of Afghanistan and
Tajikistan (2)
Other Turks (Hazars and Karaims,Mongolia, Turks of
arab„
countries etc.) (4)
3. Ottoman Family (The Balkans) (1737-1874)
1.
General Analysis of Balkans (6)
Turks of Bulgaria (2),
Western Thrace (Greece) Turks (4),
Macedonia (3),
Kosova and Sanjak (2),
Bosnia Hercegovina (4),
Albania(1), Romania and Poland (2)
4. Ottoman Family: The Caucasus
(1875-2075)
General Analysis of Balkans (10)
Chechenya (2)
Nogay Turks
(1)
Karachay-Malkar Turks (1)
Kumyk Turks (2)
5. Turkish Migration areas
(2075©2140)
Turks of West Europe (9)
Turks of US (1)
Turks of Australia
(1)
6. Turkish World and Other Countries (2141©2201)
Russia Federation
(3)
With an article of Fevziye Bayramova: Russian Chauvenism and its
dangers
Ahat Andican (Minister of Foreign Turks) : On Russian Turkish
Relations
China (2), Japonia (1) On the economic strategy of Japan in
Central Asia and Caucasus
Iran (1),
Others (4)
Contact adress: Saglik Sokak 3, Sihhiye (06410) Ankara Turkiye
tel: 0312 4334977 or 4331268 fax: 0312 4336016
<<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>>
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