<<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>>------------<<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>>
<<>><<>><<>>.....TURKISTAN NEWSLETTER...ISSN:--1386-6265....<<>><<>><<>>
<<>><<>><<>>--------------------------------------------<<>><<>><<>><<>>
<<>><<>><<>>........Editor/Manager: Mehmet Tutuncu......<<>><<>><<>><<>>
<<>><<>><<>>......Business:S.Bogut,H.Savas..............<<>><<>><<>><<>>
<<>><<>><<>>...Features: I. Noyan-Izmirli,Y. Puersuen...<<>><<>><<>><<>>
<<>><<>><<>>......Technical: T. Ates, K. Cagiltay.......<<>><<>><<>><<>>
<<>><<>>......Associate Editors: A.Baguirov, A. Eren,Z.Kadir....<<>><<>>
<<>><<>>....Editorial Board:Dr.Robert M.Cutler, Dr.H.M.Hubey....<<>><<>>
<<>><<>>........Dr.T.Kocaoglu, Dr.N.Sariahmetoglu...............<<>><<>>
<<>><<>>--------------------------------------------------------<<>><<>>
<<>><<>><<>><<>>.....Volume:97-1:14--23--june--1997.....<<>><<>><<>><<>>
<<>><<>><<>><<>><<>>-----------------------------<<><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>>
<>Uze kok tengri asra yagiz yer kilintukta ekin ara kisi ogli kilinmis<>
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********Archives of the Turkistan Newsletter can be found at:***********
********<http://www.euronet.nl/users/sota/turkistan.htm>****************
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_______1. Kyrgyz News -- Naryn Aiyp
1.1) Akayev to go to Moscow
1.2) Inter-tajik negotiations
1.3) State TV and Radio Law
1.4) State language discussions
1.5) Academy of Sciences activity
1.6) New flights to India by Kyrgyz State Airlines
1.7) Union of Homeless People holds conference in Bishkek
_______2. RFE/RL, IEWS & More -- Yanki Puersuen
2.1) Moscow-Baku Cooperation agreement
2.2) Chechnya and Russia sign memorandum
2.3) Guarding Chechnya's borders
2.4) Ingushetia celebrates anniversary
2.5) Kalmykiya is running dry
2.6) Privatization in Yakutia
2.7) Uzbek President on Upper Karabakh
2.8) Gagauz Autonomy
2.9) Bulgaria and the Muslim world
2.10) Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan look westward
2.11) Turk wins Entrepreneur of the Year award in Germany
2.12) Kyrgyz gold production to increase
_______3. Announcement from FTAA
Conference on Turkish languages
Miscellaneous-- Literature conference/prizes
_______4. TRH News -- A. Toprak
4.1) Turkish Power Switch-- by Sami Kohen, from Christian Science Monitor
4.2) PM Erbakan quits
4.3) Turkish businessman wins award in Germany
4.4) Turkey-Ukraine agree on Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline
4.5) US warns Iran and Iraq
_______5. Letter to JRL -- Robert M. Cutler
On the Ukraine-Turkish oil pipeline
_______6. Announcement -- M. Binay
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KYRGYZ NEWS - 20 JUNE 1997
1.1) President press service announced in Bishkek today that President Askar
Akayev will go to Moscow on 28 June to take part in the meeting of the Custom
Union of CIS. Members of the Union are Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and
Kyrgyzstan.
1.2) Foreign ministry press service announced in Bishkek today that Minister,
Roza Otunbayeva, will take part in the final session of the inter-Tajik
negotiations as an observer. Session will begin in Moscow on 27 June and
reconciliation agreement between Tajik government and opposition should be
signed.
Tajik president, Emomali Rakhmonov, and leader of the united opposition, Said
Abdullo Nuri, met in Bishkek on 16-18 May, 1997, and signed the Political
declaration.
1.3) Legislative Assembly of Parliament passed a new law on State TV and Radio
in the first reading today. Author of the draft is Adakhan Madumarov, chairman
of the parliamentarian commission on media & information. There are 44 clauses
in the draft. According to it, State TV & Radio will be govern by 9-member
Council of directors. 3 members of it will be choosed by Legislative Assembly,
3 ones - by the People's Assembly and 3 other members - by the President.
Incumbent president of the State TV & Radio, Amanbek Karypkulov, pablished an
article in the today's edition of independent weekly Asaba. He criticizes the
draft very hard. Karypkulov was a secretary on ideology of the Central
committee of Kyrgyz communist party in the 1980s. He was appointed as
president of the State TV & Radio by President Akayev in 1996.
1.4)Ashar movement distributed in Bishkek today a letter to Parliament members.
The Movement says that deputies should consider the case of official status to
the Russian very carefully. According to the letter, not Russian, but Kyrgyz
language needs a governmental support in Kyrgyzstan now and, if the Russian
receives an official status, the unequal situation will continue.
Kyrgyz has been a state language in Kyrgyzstan since 1989. According to the
Constitution, adopted in 1993, any restriction of citizens' rights, on the
base of not speaking the state language, is prohibited. President Akayev
addressed a session of the Legislative Assembly of Parliament on 30 June,
asking to give Russian an official status untill 1 July. He will address the
People's Assembly with the same aim on 23 June. Gennady Seleznev, speaker of
the Russian Duma, will come to Bishkek on 25 June. He will address the joint
session of Kyrgyz Parliament.
Ashar is the first independent democratic organization of Kyrgyzstan, formed
in June, 1989. It was a founding-member of the Democratic Movement of
Kyrgyzstan, united all democratic organisations in the country in 1990-1993.
Jumagazy Usupov has been chairman of Ashar from the beginning. Usupov was
accused of insulting and libeling President Akayev in 1995 and sentenced to 18
months of suspended imprisonment in April, 1996, together with Topchubek
Turgunaliev, opposition leader.
1.5) General Assembly of the National Academy of sciences ended in Bishkek
today. 6 new academicians and 13 correspondent-members of the Academy have
been elected. Sovetbek Toktomyshev, physicist and rector of Kyrgyz National
university, and Asylbek Aydaraliyev, biologist and rector of the International
University in Bishkek, are among the newly choosed academicians.
Prominent Kyrgyz historian, Kushbek Usenbayev, lost to Vladimir Ploskikh, but
then was elected as correspondent-member. Usenbayev investigated the Kyrgyz
uprising against Russian authorities in 1916. He published his first book on
it in the 1950s and was being oppressed by communist authorities for a long
time. Usenbayev's works have been published only after the independence, after
1991.
1.6) Kyrgyz state air company, Kyrgyz Aba Joldory, carried a first flight to
New-Delhi, India, today. This flight will be a weekly one now. The company
opened 3 new international flights this year (to Urumchi, China, to Hannover,
Germany, and to Sharjah, UAE) and the flight to New-Delhi is the 4th one in
1997. Official from the Air company told our correspondent in Bishkek today,
that a new flight, to Karachi (Pakistan), would be opened soon.
1.7) Union of the homeless young people of Bishkek, Yntymak, will held its
founding conference in Bishkek tomorrow, on 21 June. According to one of the
organizers, representatives from the country's regions will take part in it.
Organization unites the young people, have moved to the capital from
countryside, some part of them are unemployed. Chairman of the Union is Nurlan
Alymkulov. After the conference, they will prepare the papers for registration
by Justice ministry.
On 3 and 5 June, members of the Union picketted the government building in
Bishkek, demanding government support. Prime minister, Apas Joumagulov,
received their representatives on 5 June and promised a help. During the
mentioned demonstrations, they demanded to acquit all convicted independent
journalists, too.
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#2
>From fyp@usa.net Fri Jun 20 14:35:43 1997
Subject: For TN - IEWS Russian Regional Report--19 June 1997
2.1)
MOSCOW SIGNS COOPERATION AGREEMENT WITH AZERBAIJAN. While visiting the
Azerbaijani capital Baku on 14-15 June, Moscow Mayor Yurii Luzhkov, signed
an agreement on economic, commercial, cultural, and scientific cooperation
with republican President Geidar Aliev, Russian media reported. Leaders of
the republican and city departments on health care and education also
agreed to work together. While officially Luzhkov's visit was devoted to
discussions of Moscow's upcoming 850th anniversary celebrations, observers
agree that one of the visit's main purposes was to negotiate the supply of
Azerbaijani oil to Moscow and examine the possibilities for joint oil
extraction. Moscow needs an estimated 10 million tons of oil and 29 billion
cubic meters of gas annually. Luzhkov, speaking to journalists after his
negotiations with Aliev, said that Moscow is particularly interested in
receiving oil from Azerbaijan and suggested that the city purchase its own
oil field in the Azerbaijani part of the Caspian Sea, Nezavisimaya gazeta
reported on 17 June. According to Aliev, several Russian oil companies,
including LUKoil and Rosneft, have already approached the republican
government with proposals to work together. The republic is now also
negotiating with Moscow?s Central Fuel Company, recently created under the
directorship of former Russian Energy and Fuel Minister Yurii Shafranik,
about possible joint oil extraction. - Anna Paretskaya in Moscow
2.2)
CHECHNYA AND RUSSIA SIGN MEMORANDUM. Russian Prime Minister Viktor
Chernomyrdin and Chechen President Aslan
Maskhadov, meeting at the resort city of Sochi where Chernomyrdin is
spending his vacation, signed a memorandum on banking, customs, and oil
issues. The memorandum stipulates that Azerbaijani "early oil" will go to
the Russian port of Novorossiisk via Chechnya. The sides also agreed that
Grozny's Sheikh Mansur airport will be granted international status.
(Russian media 13 June)
2.3)
GUARDING CHECHNYA'S BORDERS. The 80 kilometer border between Chechnya and
Georgia is currently being guarded by Russian border guards ... on the
Georgian side of the border, under an agreement with Tbilisi. The commander
of the Federal Border Guards Service, Gen. Andrei Nikolaev, said recently
that "sooner or later" he expects to see Russian troops on the Chechen side
of the border. (Russian agencies, 14 June) Chechnya's border with Russia,
which is 320 kilometers long, is treated as an "internal" border within the
Russian Federation, and is guarded by interior ministry troops and not
border guards. Russian government officials still insist on treating
Chechnya as part of the Russian Federation - a point noted for example by
Deputy Secretary of the Security Council Boris Berezovskii on Russian TV on
17 June. They argue that the Khasavyurt peace accord of August 1996 which
ended the war froze any change in Chechnya's legal status for five years.
Russian troops also guard the border between Georgia and Turkey, and
between Georgia and its breakaway province of Abkhazia. In general, Russia
pursues a policy of guarding the "external" borders of the former Soviet
Union wherever possible. They have agreements to station their border
guards in Armenia, Georgia and all the Central Asian republics save
Uzbekistan. - Peter Rutland
2.4)
INGUSHETIYA CELEBRATES FIFTH ANNIVERSARY. On 4 June the republic of
Ingushetiya celebrated its fifth anniversary, Rossiiskie vesti reported on
11 June. In 1992 Ingushetiya split away from Chechnya, making it the
Russian Federation's newest republic.
In October 1992 armed conflict broke out between Ingushetiya and North
Ossetiya over the Prigorodnyi district, which was populated by Ingush but
had been given to Ossetiya in 1944, when the entire Ingush population had
been deported to Kazakstan (from whence they returned in 1956). Several
hundred people were killed in the 1992 fighting, and Russian troops moved
in as peace keepers in November 1992. Since then there has been an uneasy
truce in the region, punctuated by the assassination of the Russian
commander in August 1993, amid increasing pressure from 40,000 Ingush
refugees who want to return to Ossetiya. It is generally assumed that
Moscow favors the Ossetiyan side, in part because it tends to prefer the
status quo in territorial disputes, and partly because the Ossetiyans are
Christian while the Ingush are Moslem.
Ingush hopes were raised by the appointment of Ingush Vice President
Boris Agapov to become one of six deputy secretaries of the Russian
Security Council. In an unusual move, in March 1993 Ingush president
Ruslan Aushev had picked Agapov, an ethnic Russian who was formerly a
Lieutenant General in the border guards, to be his vice-president (even
though at the time Agapov was not even living in the republic), Itogi
reported on 17 June. Aushev, a former Soviet Army general, met Agapov
through Afghan veteran circles, and presumably reasoned that he would be a
good advocate for Ingushetiya in Moscow.
The celebrations in Nazran, the Ingush capital, were attended by many
leaders from Russian regions and from the north Caucasus - including
Chechen president Aslan Maskhadov. Even Yurii Biragov, prime minister of
North Ossetiya, was in attendance and gave a speech which was received with
"restrained, but entirely friendly applause." Mintimer Shaimiev and Murtaza
Rakhimov, presidents of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan, signed a cooperation
treaty with Ingush president Ruslan Aushev, and reportedly discussed the
idea of creating a "chamber of nationalities" inside or parallel to the
Federation Council to boost the collective influence of Russia's 21 ethnic
republics. Aushev told Rossiiskie vesti that "Ingushetiya and its people
are going through an ethnic revival at the moment," but stressed that "we
see ourselves in the future as being part of a powerful, thriving Russian
Federation." - Peter Rutland
2.5)
KALMYKIYA IS RUNNING DRY. The Republic of Kalmykiya is home to Europe's
first desert, the Interpress service reported 10 June. Desertification
affects 82% of land and is severe over 43% of the land. This has arisen due
to over-grazing, primarily by sheep, and the introduction of
irrigation-based arable farming. The republic is seeking help from the
United Nations and European Union to tackle the problem. Desertification
processes are affecting 100 million hectares in the Astrakhan, Volgograd
and Rostov regions, the Altai krai and the republics of Tyva and Dagestan.
Kalmykiya's other claim to fame is that it is the only predominantly
Buddhist state in Europe. - Peter Rutland
2.6)
PRIVATIZATION IN YAKUTIA.
The Sakha (Yakutia) government is preparing to sell 49% of the stock in
Sakhazoloto (Sakha Gold), Segodnya reported 14 June. During a recent trip
to the republic, First Deputy Prime Minister Anatolii Chubais criticized
the regional authorities for not trying to raise capital through further
privatizations.
2.7)
UZBEK PRESIDENT ON RESOLVING NAGORNO-KARABAKH ISSUE. Islam Karimov on 19 June
said at a joint news conference with Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev that
there cannot be "two Armenian states in the Caucasus," Interfax reported.
Karimov described Baku's position on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict as correct and fair. Azerbaijan is demanding restoration of its
sovereignty over the disputed enclave. Aliev, who was wrapping up an official
visit to Tashkent, said Azerbaijani-Uzbek relationships have reached "new
heights" and that the two presidents share views on "numerous" international
issues. A total of 19 bilateral agreements were singed during his visit.
2.8)
MOLDOVAN GAGAUZ AUTONOMY CRITICIZED BY TIRASPOL. The authorities in Moldova's
Gagauz autonomous region are "enraged" by the showing in Tiraspol movie
theaters of a documentary criticizing the situation in the region, BASA-Press
reported on 19 June. They say the documentary, "The Gagauz Deadlock," was
produced on the order of "destructive political forces in Tiraspol" and aims
at discrediting autonomy as a form of government at a time when Tiraspol and
Chisinau are about to resume talks on a final status for the breakaway region.
Chisinau offers Tiraspol an autonomous status similar to that enjoyed by the
Gagauz region. The Gagauz authorities say the documentary "distorts the real
situation in the region" and is "tendentious." Earlier, Gagauz region governor
Georgii Tabunshchik complained that "certain forces in Transdniester are
trying to destabilize the situation" in the autonomous region.
2.9)
BULGARIA TO IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH MUSLIM WORLD. During a three-day visit to
Kuwait that ended on 18 June, Bulgarian President Petar Stoyanov secured
support for normalizing Sofia's strained relations with Muslim and Arab
countries, an RFE/RL correspondent reported on 19 June. Stoyanov will ask
Turkey to withdraw complaints filed with the Organization of Islamic
Conference (OIC) in the 1980s, during communist leader Todor Zhivkov's
anti-Turkish minority campaign. In return, Stoyanov has agreed to allow OIC
observers to monitor the conditions of Muslims and ethnic Turks in Bulgaria.
On his return to Sofia, he said Bulgaria and Kuwait agreed to start regular
consultation at Foreign Ministry expert level. Agreements were signed to
encourage mutual investments and to avoid double taxation. In addition, a
state-owned Kuwaiti company has agreed to loan $40 million to help develop
Sofia international airport.
2.10)
UZBEKISTAN, AZERBAIJAN LOOK WESTWARD. The Presidents of Uzbekistan and
Azerbaijan, Islam Karimov and Haidar Aliev, conferred on June 18-19 in
Tashkent on a planned Central Asia-Caucasus transit corridor, designed to
reorient their countries' exports toward the West. The presidents discussed
specific proposals for highway, railroad, pipeline, and port terminal
projects as part of the corridor. Karimov stated that Uzbekistan's accession
to the undertaking "made quite clear which direction we favor."
2.11)
Almanya'nin 1 numarasi Turk
Almanya'da organize edilen "Entrepeneur Des Jahres'' ticaret
dalinda yilin isadami odulunu bir Turk isadami; Kemal
Sahin kazandi. Finale kalan 53 orta olcekli sirket sahibi
arasindan siyrilarak birinci olan Kemal Sahin,
Almanya'daki Santex firmasinin sahibi. Sahin, kasim
ayinda Kaliforniya'da yapilacak "Dunyanin En Basarili
Isadami" yarismasina Almanya adayi olarak katilacak. (Zaman)
2.12)
Kyrygzstan expects a gold production of 13 tons in a reopened mine. Thought
empty it has been closed during Soviet time. According to a press release of
the Canadian-Kyrgyz joint venture Kumtor altyn Kumtor Field is the richest
gold mine in Kyrgyzstan. Exploitation is expected to raise to 16.5 tons in
1998 and 18.5 in 1999. Canadian Kameko and Kyrgyzaltyn started operation
with a joint venture at this field while no approval was given in Soviet
times because authorities claimed it is unefficient.
<><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>
#3
[The following text is in the "iso-8859-1" character set]
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Announcement
Date: Thu, 19 Jun 1997 02:35:42 -0400
From: Federation of Turkish American Associations <ftaa@ftaa.org>
-------------------------------------
Türk Amerikan Dernekleri Federasyonu
ve
Azerbaycan Dernegi, Kirim Türkleri Amerikan Birligi ve Türkistanlilar
Cemiyeti sunar:
Türk Dili ve Türk Dünyasi Konferansi:
-------------------------------------
Konusmacilar:
Prof. Dr. Ahmet Bican Ercilasun
Türk Dil Kurumu Baskani ve
Gazi Üniversitesi Türk Lehçeleri Bölümü Baskani
Doç. Dr. Mahir Nakib
Visiting Professor at Rutgers University-Newark,
Erciyes Üniversitesi Isletme Fakültesi
Yer : Türk Evi 2. Kat
Tarih : 24 Haziran 1997, Sali
Saat : 7:30 - 9:30 PM
======================================================================
Date: Fri, 20 Jun 1997 21:35:40 +0200
[The following text is in the "iso-8859-1" character set]
[Your display is set for the "US-ASCII" character set]
[Some characters may be displayed incorrectly]
Almanya'nin Sesi Radyosu'nun 1996 yilinda Türkçeye ayirdigi
edebiyat yarismasini kazananlar belli oldu. Degerlendirmesini dün yapan
jüri öykü dalinda birincilige "Tahta Kuslar" adli öyküsü ile Asli
Erdogan-Lehrfeld, radyo oyunu dalinda ise "Seyh Sanan'in Aski" adli eseri
ile Hidayet Karakus'u layik gördü. Yazar Christoph Hein baskanliginda toplanan
jüri ayrica yarismaya Mannheim'dan katilan Fikret Dogan'in eserini
özel övgüye deger buldu ve bes esere mansiyon verdi. Mansiyon alanlar
öykü dalinda Ankara'dan Zerrin Polat ve Mahir Adibes, Istanbul'dan
Nevin Ulkay Bog, radyo oyunu dalinda ise Istanbul'dan Ömer Ugur ve
Izmir'den Hasan Latif Sariyüce.
Iki dalda bes biner Marktan olusan birincilik ödülü Frankfurt Kitap
Fuarinda sahiplerine verilecek. Alti mansiyon sahibine ise Goethe
enstitüsünün Almanya'daki merkezlerinde düzenlenecek Almanca kurslarına
katılım imkani sunuluyor.
Her iki yilda bir düzenlenen ve altincisi Türkçeye ayrilan edebiyat
yarismasina 700'ün üstünde yazar 831 eserle katilmisti. Bunlar arasindan
seçilen 25 eser, Almancaya çevrilerek Türk ve Alman edebiyatçilardan
olusan jüriye sunuldu.
Degerlendirmesini dün yapan jürinin öykü dalinda birincilige layik
gördügü Istanbul'dan yarismaya katilan Asli Erdogan-Lehrfeld'in
Schwarzwald'de bir klinikte geçen öyküsünde farkli kültürlerden
kadinlarin ortak maceralari anlatiliyor. Aralarinda türk kadini
Filiz'in de bulundugu ve ortak yanlari hastaliklari olan kadinlarin
yasama ve dünyaya bakislari ile düsünce ve duygularinin olusturdugu
bireysellikleri yazar tarafindan öne çikarilarak gelistiriliyor.Bu
öyküde sürekleyici anlatim, saglam dili ve öykü kahramanlarinin
bireyselliklerinin dile yansimasinin ilgi çektigi vurgulandi..
1967 yili Istanbul dogumlu olan Asli Erdogan-Lehrfeld, Bogaziçi
Üniversitesi Bilgisayar Mühendisliğini bitirdi. Cenevre'de Fizik dalinda
yüksek lisans yapti. 1989 yilinda yazmaya baslayan ve ilk öykülerini edebiyat
dergilerinde yayinlayan Asli Erdogan Lehrfeld'in Mitos yayinlarindan
çikmis "Kabuk Adam" ve "Mucizevi Mandarin" isimli eserleri mevcut.
Radyo oyunu dalinda birincilige layik görülen Hidayet Karakus'un
"Seyh Sanan'in Aski" adli eserinde Türk mistik kültürü çagdas bir
yaklasimla degerlendiriliyor. Bu kültürün eksenini olusturan din ya
da inancin sevgiyi engellememesi gerektigi inzivaya çekilen Seyh Sanan
ile ortodoks-rum kizi Helene'nin askinda aktariliyor. Hidayet Karakus'un eserinde, tasavvuf gelenegini günlük dile aktarmadaki basarisi ve oyunun
siirsel havasi dikkati çekti.
1946 yilinda Yalvaç'in Kurusari köyünde dogan Hidayet Karakus,
ilkögretmen okulunu ve Selçuk Eğitim Enstitüsü Edebiyat bölümünü bitirdi.
Ögretmenlik görevini sürdüren Hidayet Karakus çesitli dergi ve gazetelerde
çok sayida siir ve yazi yayinladi. Ayrica yayinlanmis siir kitaplari,
romanları, çocuk kitaplari ve radyo oyunlari mevcut.
Jürinin gerekçelendirmesinde Mannheim'dan yarismaya katilan Fikret
Dogan'in eserinin, sürükleyici anlatimi ve Almanya'daki Türkçe edebiyata
getirdigi yeni solukla özel övgüye deger bulundugu vurgulaniyor.
Almanya'nin Sesi Radyosu jürisi, dogu alman yazar Christoph Hein
baskanliginda, Türkiye'den edebiyat elestirmeni Dogan Hizlan,
Almanya'da yasayan türk yazarlarin Yüksel Pazarkaya ve Aras Ören, Bamberg
üniversitesinde Profesör Türkolog Klaus Kreiser, Bati Alman Radyolarinda dramaturg Angela Sussdorf ve Deutsche Welle'yi temsilen edebiyat yarismasinin fikir babasi Dr. Joachim Burkhardt'dan olusmaktaydi.
Köln,18.06.97
<><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>
#4
Subject: TRKNWS-L Turkish Power Switch May Not Soothe Army
Date: Fri, 20 Jun 1997 00:09:33 -0400
Turkish Power Switch May Not Soothe Army
Sami Kohen, Special to The Christian Science Monitor
ISTANBUL, TURKEY --
Faced with rising pressure from Turkey's secular military, Necmettin
Erbakan yesterday resigned as prime minister in a meeting with Turkish
President Suleyman Demirel, ending a one-year experiment in Islamist-led
government.
Mr. Erbakan's move, which included a call for new elections as early as
October, could actually strengthen his beleaguered party. The popularity
of his Refah (Welfare) Party has risen lately as stock in his coalition
partner and likely successor - Tansu Ciller of the center-right True
Path Party - has fallen.
What is likely to happen now is a game of musical chairs in which Mrs.
Ciller takes her turn as prime minister. When the coalition was formed
last June, the plan was for such a rotation to happen in two years.
But Erbakan's early departure leaves Refah ministers in the Cabinet.
That has political analysts wondering about the Army's next move.
Some Turks, particularly in the press, see a longer Refah rule as a
danger to a democratic, secular state. But others say forcing the party
out of government will only make Refah's radicals more militant, and
gain the party more support from ordinary people.
The secular "generals," as they are known, have left no doubt that they
want the Islamists out. They do not want to see Refah with any power,
even in a government led by Ciller, whom they call an "accomplice" of
Islamists, not a guarantor of secularism.
International observers understand that Ciller's premiership is not
guaranteed. They worry that the Army will pressure President Demirel to
torpedo the reconfigured coalition altogether.
That worries American officials concerned about stability in this NATO
country. This week, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said
Washington expects Turkey to preserve democracy.
Sources close to the military say that no coup is planned. "We are fully
aware of the possible consequences of a coup," says a senior officer,
speaking on condition of anonymity. "We also know the concern abroad."
There have been three coups since 1960.
The feeling in the armed forces, however, is that letting Islamic power
grow would eventually lead to sharia, or Islamic law, and an end to
democracy. That reasoning has led them to call for Refah to be shut
down. Last week, an Army "briefing" called an Islamic uprising imminent
- and threatened force as a last result.
An early election would shield the party from some of the heat being
thrown by the Army. It would also allow Refah to consolidate, and
perhaps fare better at the polls than it did in December 1995, when its
21 percent was only enough to land the party in the coalition that was
finally formed last year.
Opinion surveys already show Refah's support broadening. Erbakan views a
fresh election as "a referendum" on his party.
Ciller has reason to seek the office of prime minister and to favor an
election. Holding the post would keep her immune from prosecution on
pending corruption charges and gain her influence in government at a
time when her hand has been weakened.
Political observers in Turkey see big gains for Erbakan if Ciller does
become prime minister. Intense political maneuvering over the next few
days will determine whether she gets in. Demirel has hinted that he
wants be sure that the person he designates will be able to have a
working majority. Recent defections by some of Ciller's ministers mean
the coalition partners do not hold the necessary majority.
Yet the small, ultranationalist, pro-religious Great Unity Party
announced Tuesday that it would throw support behind a Ciller-led
coalition. That should give her the sway Demirel requires.
The question now is whether Ciller's own True Path parliamentarians will
go so far as to vote against her. If they do, they could effectively
keep both Ciller and Refah out of power.
4.2) PRIME MINISTER ERBAKAN QUITS
Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan yesterday tendered his
resignation to President Suleyman Demirel in an attempt to abide by a
power-sharing deal with his coalition partner, True Path Party (DYP)
leader Tansu Ciller. "A short while ago I presented my resignation to
the president" Erbakan told reporters after a 45-minute meeting with
President Demirel. Erbakan earlier held an unscheduled 2.5-hour-long
meeting with Ciller and Muhsin Yazicioglu, leader of the Grand Unity
Party (BBP), about a proposed caretaker government to take the country
into early elections under Ciller's leadership.
Erbakan said he also presented Demirel a joint declaration of the
leaders of Welfare Party (RP), DYP and BBP that if Ciller was
designated to form the next government they would be supporting her.
ERbakan said the new government would stay in office until new
elections which "will be held within 3-4 months".
Today, President Demirel will meet leaders of the Motherland
Party (ANAP) Mesut Yilmaz, Democratic Left Party (DSP) Bulent Ecevit,
Republican People's Party (CHP) Deniz Baykal and Democratic Turkish
Party (DTP) Husamettin Cindoruk. /Milliyet/
4.3) TURKISH BUSINESSMAN AWARDED IN GERMANY
Turkish businessman Kemal Sahin, owner of the Santex conpany
based in Germany, has been selected "Entrepreneur of the Year" in
Germany. Sahin, who is providing employment opportunities for 9,000
workers, was presented with an award at a ceremony in Stuttgart. In a
speech at the ceremony, the yong entrepreneur vowed to work hard for
the further improvement of Turco-German economic relations. /Sabah/
4.4) TURKEY, UKRAINE AGREE ON SAMSUN-CEYHAN PIPELINE
Turkey and Ukraine have signed an agreement for the construction
of a pipeline between the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan and the
Black Sea port of Samsun. Recai Kutan, Minister for Energy and his
Ukrainian counterpart A.Minchenko signed the deal at the Turkish
Petroleum Company (TPAO) office yesterday. Kutan said that Turkey had
become an energy bridge in the region.
The pipeline is planned to carry oil which Ukraine will buy from
Middle East countries. The Ukrainian energy minister said that
Ukraine planned to carry Iraqi, Iranian and Saudi Arabian oil via the
pipeline. When reminded that the UN still had an embargo on oil trade
with Iraq and that the US had imposed sanctions on deals with Libya
and Iran, he responded that that would not always be the case. The
construction of the pipeline is expected to take two years.
/Cumhuriyet/
4.5) US WARNS IRAN AND IRAQ
The US administration has reacted against the Iran-Iraq-Syria
alliance established against the Turco-Israeli cooperation. US Acting
Deputy Secretary of State responsible for Near Eastern Affairs David
Welch has said that they do not want Baghdad and Tehran to be
effective in northern Iraq. Welch noted that US policy regarding Iran
was not originating from hostility towards the Islamic regime there
but from Iran's foreign policy.
Recalling that Iran was directly supporting terrorism, Welch
stated that Iran was trying to damage the Middle East peace process.
Touching upon the operation held by the Turkish Army in northern Iraq,
Welch pointed out that the operation was carried out against the PKK
terrorist organization. Welch said: "We have supported and will
support Turkey's defence rights against the PKK". /Sabah/
<><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>
$5
>From: "Robert M. Cutler" <rmc@panix.com>
Subject: For Turkistan-N: Copy of posting sent to JRL
Date: Sat, 21 Jun 1997 10:24:43 +0000
Comment on Reuters report of Turkey-Ukraine pipeline accord
Robert M. Cutler <rmc@panix.com>
[Thomas Goltz posted to Johnson's Russia List concerning a bizarre
Reuters report that Turkey and Ukraine had signed an agreement to
construct a pipeline from Ceyhan to the Black Sea, for the northward-
only transmission of oil to be exported from Turkey to Ukraine. This
was my comment on both Goltz and the Reuters report.]
I was puzzled too by the Reuters story that Thomas Goltz passed
along, according to which a pipeline from Ceyhan to the Black Sea
would be built to carry oil *to* Ukraine from Turkey's Mediterranean
port of Ceyhan.
Perhaps the Reuters reporter got things wrong and the oil will flow
south, not north, or south as well as north. This would contradict the
reported statement by Turkey's Energy Minister that it would flow only
to the north. That in turn would imply that either the Reuters reporter
misunderstood the minister or that the minister was engaging in
disinformation. Neither of these possibilities is to be dismissed out
of hand. Nor is the possibility evoked by Goltz that Ukraine would
get Iraqi oil via Ceyhan.
Let me note that a route from the Black Sea was proposed by Turkey
several years ago to encourage acceptance the Georgian route for
"early" oil, before transshipment from Supsa to Ukraine became a
recognized possibility. Under that previous scenario, the oil imported
by Turkey at the Black Sea from Supsa would have been refined by
Turkey for domestic consumption.
Note that Aliev signed accords in Almaty earlier this month providing
for the export of Kazakhstani oil via Baku (transiting under or
perhaps over the Caspian) through Georgia *to* Black Sea ports of
Ukraine, Bulgaria (the once in-vogue pipeline idea to terminate at
Alexandropoulos on the Mediterranean thus bypassing the Bosphorus)
*and* also Turkey; while the press in Central Asia and the South
Caucasus made publicity of problems of the revamped Caspian Pipeline
Consortium to construct its line from Tengiz to Novorossiisk.
All the accords being signed and projects being agreed among
governments, even with the participation of international energy
conglomerates, are closely akin to the old Soviet-style "framework
agreements" of five-year bilateral international trade plans with
Third World countries. The levels of trade foreseen in those
international agreements (although they nominally were binding under
international law though not with the force of treaties) were rarely
achieved because they were understood to depend, for their fulfilment,
upon the subsequent negotiation and implementation of specific
projects for trade in defined economic sectors.
Without some specific wide-ranging international initiative undertaken
by the European Union, the U.S., and/or appropriate international
institutions, the "devil take the hindmost [and the rest of us get our own
cuts first]" spirit of energy resource development in that region of the
world will continue to be the dominant ethos. Then as the 2020s begin,
we can all feign surprise why the masses of economically impoverished
now-being (and soon-to-be) -born generations in the region, having
been politically socialized in an environment of material scarcity and
under conditions where physical hunger was never far distant, should
be so restive and unsympathetic to Western ideas, culture, and institutions.
Since you are encouraging announcements of publications in [the list],
let me indicate the existence of a 7000-word manuscript proposing such
an initiative and invite your readers to contact me for further detail.
Robert M. Cutler
http://www.panix.com/~rmc
<><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>
#6
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http://www.csam.montclair.edu/Faculty/Hubey.html
hubey@pegasus.montclair.edu hubeyh@alpha.montclair.edu
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